Climate, Water, and Society: Unraveling Complex Interactions Through Decision-Relevant Climate Information

This session will explore new approaches to understanding and managing complex environmental challenges. The presentations will discuss new frameworks for scenario analysis and impact assessment and offer methodologies for bridging scientific research with decision making.

The first talk introduces the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced “forensic”). Scenarios help assess future uncertainties and guide adaptive management, but traditional "top down" approaches using few prespecified scenarios risk missing important dynamics and stakeholder impacts. While "bottom up" methods using large scenario ensembles provide more rigorous uncertainty exploration, they often struggle to provide actionable insights. FRNSIC bridges these approaches by using hierarchical classification to identify key storylines within broad scenario ensembles. We demonstrate FRNSIC's application to the Upper Colorado River Basin, examining decadal drought impacts on water users and downstream deliveries, showing how it can guide adaptive management and adaptation analysis.

In the second talk, a qualitative and quantitative assessment approach of the human impacts of weather, water, and climate is introduced. Climate models project major changes to the water cycle but interpreting how and where climate phenomena will impact people is far more complex. The Global Water Security Center (GWSC) works with decisionmakers at the US Department of Defense to interpret and operationalize weather, water, and climate information. This talk introduces the Pathways to Impact framework that we developed to organize broad categories of biophysical impacts and social mediators to identify important causal pathways from water disturbances to political instability and thereby aid identification of key weather, water, and climate events. Example products will demonstrate the implementation of the Framework and communication methods used to bridge the gap between scientists and decision-makers.

Bios

Dr. Antonia Hadjimichael is an Assistant Professor at the Pennsylvania State University. Antonia’s research applies interdisciplinary approaches to the study of complex human-Earth systems, specifically in the domain of water and planning under uncertainty. She holds a BSc in Mathematics from the University of Leicester, UK, a MSc in Environmental Modeling from University College London, UK, and a PhD in Water Science and Technology from the University of Girona, Spain. She serves in the leadership teams for the Society for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty and the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice.

Dr. Penelope Mitchell is a Human-Environmental Analyst at the Global Water Security Center (GWSC) at the University of Alabama. Her unwritten title at GWSC is “story wrangler” as she works with data scientists and cartographers to unpack and communicate the complex pathways between water disturbances and possible insecurities. Mitchell received her PhD in geography from the University of Alabama in 2023. Her doctoral research focused on opioid treatment accessibility in a complex spatial system, wherein risk, accessibility, and location models were utilized to improve treatment accessibility for underserved populations, earning her the Outstanding Dissertation Award from the UA College of Arts & Sciences. She utilizes this experience in unpacking complex problems to extend the knowledge base of water-related research conducted by GWSC to address global insecurities at the nexus of water, food, energy, and health.